New UMass Amherst/League of Women Voters Poll Finds Women Overwhelming Call for a National Popular Vote for Presidential Elections

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at https://www.umass.edu/political-science/about/reports/2024-9 

AMHERST, MA — Less than two weeks from Election Day and with two-thirds of Americans expressing enthusiasm about this year’s vote, a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst/League of Women Voters Poll has found that women overwhelmingly want the US to move away from the Electoral College and toward a national popular vote for presidential elections. The poll, which was conducted Oct. 11 – 16 and included an oversample of women in an effort to better understand the specific views of women, found that the economy remains the No. 1 issue on the minds of all voters and women alike, followed by the health of our nation’s democracy.

With the 2024 presidential election likely to be one of the closest in the nation’s history and the candidates spending much of their time in swing states important to garner 270 electoral votes, a majority of the voters (57%) and more than 6 in 10 women (62%) support a new system in which the candidate who wins the most votes nationwide wins the presidential election.

“For much of the nation’s history, the Electoral College was an afterthought and viewed as a unique quirk in what otherwise was a democratic system of elections,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “In recent years, with increasingly close presidential elections, we have seen the Electoral College take center stage in selecting the nation’s next president as winners of the popular vote in 2000 and 2016 failed to secure enough Electoral College votes to become president.” 

“The Electoral College is an outdated racist relic with harmful implications for all voters,” says Celina Stewart, CEO of the League of Women Voters of the United States. “So, it is no surprise that women are advocating for a more representative system that prioritizes the power of the people. Voters, not politically motivated electors, must choose the president. Since 1970, the League has called for abolishing the Electoral College, and this poll proves just how important our work is now to end the Electoral College and center voters once and for all.”

“Women acknowledge the crossroads we stand at as a nation, with the growing concern that our democracy is at risk,” says Dianna Wynn, president of the League of Women Voters of the United States. “They understand that the stability and fairness of our democratic institutions are crucial to ensuring a better future. At the League, we believe in the power of women to create a more perfect democracy, and we remain committed to ensuring everyone is fully represented in our electoral system.”

“Sixty-one percent of the poll’s respondents say their vote matters in the upcoming election but 39% say it does not, largely because they are in states that are not competitive for the Electoral College,” says Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “When asked who would benefit from discarding the Electoral College and moving to the popular vote, respondents had a difficult time deciding, with a majority often saying it was unclear. According to 41% of voters, Democratic presidential candidates are most likely to benefit, while 44% say large states and 40% say urban areas would benefit.”

“The race is too close to call and will likely come down to just thousands of votes in a couple of states,” says Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “What is clear, though, is that there is a real chance that the winner of the popular vote will not win in the Electoral College – if so, it would be the third time in just 25 years that the Electoral College tally did not match the national vote totals. Even the Electoral College’s ‘nightmare scenario,’ in which neither candidate receives 270 Electoral College votes, is possible, though not likely, this year. Should that occur, though, Congress would then choose the president and fewer than a quarter of Americans support this process. Perhaps the greatest indictment of the Electoral College is that less than two-thirds (61%) of voting-age Americans believe their vote will matter in determining the next president. Seventy percent of respondents living in the seven swing states in which this election is being contested believe their vote will matter, while just 59% of respondents in non-swing states believe the same. And, frankly, the non-swing state residents are vastly overestimating the impact of their votes for our nation’s highest office. Presidential elections are the high-water mark in our electoral cycle and should be an opportunity to engage all Americans in our democracy.”

“Given the partisan rancor seen in the US Congress and state legislatures, it is unlikely that a constitutional amendment that addresses this system will be passed anytime soon,” Nteta says, “but given the widespread support for this change, particularly among young people (59%), it may be a matter of time until the Electoral College becomes a thing of the past.”

In the meantime, the poll also found voters in favor of a number of changes to the way elections are currently conducted that would make casting a vote easier for Americans.

“With Election Day less than two weeks away and millions of Americans preparing to exercise their democratic right to participate in the nation’s election, we find majoritarian support for a wealth of changes to the nation’s electoral system,” Nteta says. “From expanding the option to vote-by-mail (58%), to same-day registration (58%) to automatic registration (54%) to online voting (52%) and to re-extending the franchise to those who have served prison sentences (52%), Americans are supportive of changes to the ways in which we vote and participate in our democracy in the hope of easing the burdens on voters and increasing voter engagement and turnout.”

“Americans want to make voting easier,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Making voting by mail available to everyone and increasing the availability of polling locations are especially popular. These reforms are already proven in states around the nation. Given their popularity, it’s likely that they will continue to proliferate in the coming years.” 

Nteta agrees but notes a divide on the issue of same-day registration.

“Over 20 states now allow their voters to register and vote on the same day, and in these states, turnout on average is higher than in states without same-day registration,” he says. “Majorities of Americans across traditional divides express support for this change to elections, but the lone exceptions are Republicans (38%), conservatives (36%) and Trump voters (31%). Given the partisan and ideological nature of this opposition and the current partisan rift in the US Congress and in many state legislatures, it is unlikely that same-day registration will become the law of the land anytime soon. However, with many states having the option of passing laws through ballot measures, given the popularity of these measures, we may see voters taking the initiative and passing these policies themselves.”

While Americans want to make voting easier, Rhodes also notes that nearly three-quarters of the poll’s respondents (73%) also want voters to show identification before casting a ballot.

Enthusiasm, but Concern

The University of Massachusetts Amherst/League of Women Voters Poll found very high enthusiasm among respondents for this year’s election, with more than two-thirds of all respondents saying they were somewhat or very enthusiastic about voting in the presidential election.

“Sixty-eight percent of voters say they are enthusiastic about voting and just 18% say they are not, but we do see gender differences,” La Raja says. “Seventy-two percent of men say they are enthusiastic compared to 64% of women, although Democratic women seem somewhat more enthusiastic than Republican women. And with respect to age, 78% of people over 55 are enthusiastic compared to 58% of people under 30.”

The survey found concerns among respondents heading into the election, however, especially regarding how their votes are being influenced.

“The biggest concern among voters is the influence of fake news, disinformation and deepfakes,” La Raja says, noting that a significant majority (65%) feels this way. “Close behind, however, are concerns about protests, riots, or violence by supporters of the losing candidate (61%). Additionally, significant numbers of voters — although not a majority — cite fraud and abuse associated with the counting of ballots (48%), attempted voter suppression by the opposing party (46%), and the losing presidential candidate refusing to accept the final election result (44%). These elevated voter concerns about elections are surprising for a mature democracy like the United States.”

“The politicization and weaponization of information — always a threat in democracies — has accelerated due to near-universal use of social media and the power of AI,” Rhodes says. “Given recent publicized instances of media manipulation by foreign governments and private firms, Americans understandably worry about how misinformation and disinformation may create confusion around the election.”

Theodoridis also points to voters’ concerns about their ballots being counted, according to the survey’s findings.

“We are facing a crisis of confidence in American democracy,” Theodoridis says. “Just 39% of respondents tell us they are ‘very confident’ their vote will be counted accurately and only two-thirds express any level of confidence. This is deeply troubling, especially given that our elections are the safest and most secure they have ever been and levels of fraud and error are miniscule. We see that 61% of Democrats are ‘very confident’ their vote will be counted accurately, compared to just 26% among Republicans — a remarkably high 72% of Republicans tell us they are concerned about fraud and abuse associated with the counting of ballots.”

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll was conducted by YouGov Oct. 11 – 16. YouGov interviewed 1,816 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,500 to produce the final dataset. This consisted of two samples: A Main sample of 1,224 individuals from the U.S. general population matched down to 1,000, and an Oversample of 592 women from the U.S. general population matched down to 500. 

Respondents in each sample were matched to a sampling frame on gender (main sample only), age, race and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of US adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

For the oversample of women respondents, this sampling frame was based on a women subset of the modeled frame of US adults. In each sample, the matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender (main sample only), race/ethnicity, years of education, region and home ownership (main sample only). The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights for each sample were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender (main sample only), age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories). Both samples were the combined and an additional post-stratification on gender, 2020 presidential vote and political party identification were conducted separately to produce an overall sample weight. In addition, a second weight was produced for the women in the overall sample (1,036). This was produced with a similar process.

The margin of error of this poll is 3.1% for all respondents and 3.8% for female respondents.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll.